Let's talk about a rapidly evolving breakthrough that will blow your mind and maybe even save your life: the biotech revolution unfolding right under our noses.
Dario Amodei, the CEO of AI leader Anthropic, recently said:
“If we get AI right it could increase by 10x, maybe 100x, the rate at which we invent these discoveries. All the progress we made in biology in the 20th century compressed into 5 or 10 years. That’s the upside.”
He’s not exaggerating. Scientists know less about our bodies than about outer space. But AI is changing that, fast.
Did you know personalized shots that kill cancerous tumors are now in use? And that’s just the start!
My daughter’s friend’s mom was recently diagnosed with stage 4 head cancer. Vicky had to get her eye removed as the cancer spread.
At her little girl’s birthday party last week, she only joined when we were cutting the cake. She was too weak from the radiation. It’s a “punch in the gut” reminder of what’s important in life.
I’m telling you this not to bum you out, but to make clear the stakes. Isn’t it wild that, despite all the progress in medicine, we often walk around with ticking time bombs inside our bodies, blissfully unaware until it's too late?
What if we could catch tumors before they grow an inch? It’s now possible thanks to MIT researchers. They used AI to predict the chances of developing lung cancer (notoriously hard to detect) up to six years in advance with a routine CT scan.
Those six years are literally the difference between life and death. Lung cancer is a silent killer. By the time you notice symptoms, it’s often too late. Catch it early and your chances of beating it skyrocket.
We all know ChatGPT as an AI bot that can converse like it’s human. But the model underlying ChatGPT is the real breakthrough. Its superpower is parsing mind-bending amounts of data. It then learns to find patterns, which leads to new discoveries.
AI is essentially a tireless scientist, able to comb through millions of research papers overnight and spot connections humans miss.
It’s launching us into an era where drugs will be as unique as your fingerprint.
Pharma giants BioNTech and Moderna have designed customized cancer shots they call “vaccines.” They’re not really vaccines, in that they don’t prevent cancer. They are given to people who already have cancer, to kill it and keep it from coming back.
In the simplest terms, this technology uses AI to analyze a patient's tumor. It then uses the patient’s genetic makeup to design a unique shot to fight the cancer. A “1 of 1” cancer shot, designed specifically for your body.
In early trials, these shots halved the death rate of skin cancer patients!
Customized jabs to tackle lung… pancreatic… colorectal… prostate… head… and bladder cancer are now in trials and showing promising early results.
Can AI fight Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s? You bet! US researchers developed a blood test to detect Alzheimer’s with 91% accuracy up to seven years before symptoms arise. Dementia specialists are only 73% accurate.
A word of caution: These tests are still in trials. But early results are incredibly promising. And by catching these diseases early, we can start treatment sooner. AI’s accelerating that, too. Scientists at the University of Cambridge have used AI to identify potential treatments for Parkinson’s 10 times faster than before.
We're talking about finding cures in months instead of years. Drugs are now coming to market that slow the progression of dementia.
Help me shout this from the rooftops:
All these breakthroughs happened this year!
Imagine what we’ll achieve in the next five years.
Here’s a glimpse.
They say “don’t Google your symptoms,” because you’ll come away thinking your headache is brain cancer.
But it’s foolish not to “AI” symptoms. It might just save your life.
As reported by the NYT, a woman named Susan recently rushed to the ER because the right side of her face was sagging. Doctors told Susan everything was fine and sent her home.
Susan wasn't buying it. She snapped a selfie and showed it to ChatGPT. The AI suggested Bell’s Palsy, which needed urgent treatment. She went back to the ER… and doctors confirmed ChatGPT’s diagnosis!
Prepare to hear a lot of stories like this. Books will be written about people using AI to cheat death.
ChatGPT and its rival Claude (which I prefer) aren’t silly toys. They’re medical prodigies. ChatGPT scored in the top 8% on the US medical licensing exam.
Did you know cancer death rates in the US are down 30% since 1990? Death rates from heart attacks and strokes have seen a staggering 75% decline.
It’s great progress, but we’ve got so much further to push forward. I think of Vicky at my daughter’s school almost every day. I can’t imagine not being at my kids’ parties. This isn't just about cool technology—it's about real families, real lives.
A century ago, giving birth was about as risky as having breast cancer is today. With AI turbocharging biotech, might we one day look back at today's “death sentences” as historical artifacts?
Imagine a world where cancer is a defeated disease like polio. It’s on the table. Let’s turn terminal into treatable.
Innovation is our superpower against human suffering. And remember, nothing—absolutely nothing—matters more than our health.
My friend Matt Ridley, the original Rational Optimist, told me over breakfast that he believes biotech is the next great transformational trend. I couldn't agree more. With AI as the rocket fuel, we're blasting off into a new era of longevity.
Stay curious, stay optimistic, and stay healthy!
All aboard the space bus!
Imagine an object the size of the Statue of Liberty, falling from the sky at 1,200 miles per hour… and landing gracefully like a ballerina, ready to fly again.
That’s what Elon Musk’s SpaceX achieved last Sunday with the fifth launch of Starship; the largest rocket ever built.
Getting a skyscraper-sized rocket off the ground is one heck of an achievement. SpaceX outdid itself this time by launching Starship into orbit… then catching its massive booster upon reentry with a pair of giant mechanical arms called “chopsticks.”
Pictures can’t do SpaceX’s achievement justice. This is on the “Mount Rushmore” of human innovation.
Space travel used to be astronomically expensive because we had to build a new rocket for every mission.
SpaceX changed the game by pioneering reusable rockets that land themselves after launch, ready for the next trip. But only SpaceX’s smaller “workhorse” rockets were reusable… until now.
Picture a fleet of spaceships landing, refueling, and launching again on the same day. SpaceX is turning rockets into airliners. All aboard the space bus!
SpaceX already slashed the cost of reaching orbit by 98%, which gifted us innovations like Starlink. Starlink satellites now beam down high-speed internet to four million customers.
At scale, Starship will lower the cost of reaching orbit by another 50X! It's like reducing the price of airfare from New York to LA from $500 to $10. This will open up a new universe of possibilities.
Rational Optimists know we’re already making drugs in space. How about building computer chip plants on the moon? As our friend Mike Solana of Pirate Wires says, “Let’s make the moon a US state.”
SpaceX’s test flights have become a national spectacle. It’s something every American should be proud of. America’s innovative spirit… on full display. You love to see it.
Here’s a snap of Starship blasting into orbit. The optimism is flowing through my veins!
New breakthrough: molten salt nuclear reactor
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has given the green light to build a new type of nuclear reactor at Abilene Christian University in Texas.
It’s the first molten (liquid) salt reactor ever approved in America and the first college research reactor approved by the NRC in 40 years!
We’re big fans of nuclear power here at The Rational Optimist Society. How could you not love the cleanest, safest source of energy known to man?
Traditional nuclear reactors are like pressure cookers filled with water. If something goes wrong (extremely rare), you've got a big, steamy mess.
Instead of using water as a coolant, these new reactors use molten salt. In the simplest terms, it allows the reactors to produce far more power without the risk of boiling over.
If something goes wrong with a molten salt reactor, the salt simply cools and becomes solid, trapping the radioactive materials inside. It's like a self-deploying safety net.
The other reason this is a huge deal is because innovation has effectively been illegal in the nuclear industry for 50 years.
The NRC hasn't approved a new reactor design in half a century. It's like regulators telling GM and Ford they’re only allowed to make cars designed before 1974!
Bureaucrats are finally starting to change their tune on nuclear. Congress passed a law earlier this year to expedite the approval process for mini reactors. I hope we’ll see a flood of new plants get approved in the coming years.
Nuclear plants already power one in five homes in America. Once we start making small reactors in factories like we make cars, expect nuclear costs, build times, and household energy bills to plummet.
UATX, nuclear factories, optimist meetups
Happy Sunday from sunny Berkeley, California!
I’m in town for Jason Crawford’s Roots of Progress conference. I consider it the first true get-together for the optimist community.
I’ve chatted with some of the sharpest thinkers including Stripe founder Patrick Collison… Tyler Cowen from Marginal Revolution… Enlightenment Now author Steven Pinker… and many more.
Earlier this week, I was in Austin visiting the folks at the University of Austin, Texas (UATX). I also got to tour nuclear startup Aalo Atomics’ factory.
It’s been a whirlwind few days. I’m now back to Dublin to prepare for the birth of my second son. I’ll share my key learnings with you next Sunday.
In the meantime, help me spread some sweet, sweet optimism.
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