"You’re going to fall off your chair when I tell you about my next book," Matt Ridley says, pouring a cup of tea.
It’s a crisp London morning. I’m having breakfast with the man who transformed how millions of people, including me, think about the world.
In 2010, Ridley’s The Rational Optimist debunked the doom-and-gloom narrative. He showed how innovation and technology, when allowed to freely flourish, have consistently improved lives for 250 years.
Matt is now a dear friend and Honorary Founder of The Rational Optimist Society.
In a London café last week, we played a round of “is this promising technology overrated or underrated?”… discussed what he’s most excited about… what he’s worried about… and much more.
Below are my notes. Enjoy!
“The working title of my next book is... The Rational Pessimist!”
Has the godfather of rational optimism turned doomer? Not quite.
Here’s a sneak preview of the elevator pitch on Matt’s next book: Our future could be extraordinary if we’d just get out of our own way.
“Look at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research projections for 2100,” Matt says. “Its most optimistic scenario shows global GDP expanding tenfold. And how do we get there? By embracing innovation and technology.”
He shakes his head. “The answer is right there in this report, yet we’re doing the opposite!”
Instead, we’re strangling innovation with red tape. We’ve made building nuclear reactors and developing lifesaving drugs so expensive that we get less of both.
“With The Rational Pessimist,” Matt continues, “I want to grab readers and say: Imagine your salary multiplied by 10. Think of all the good you could do for the world. That future is possible, but I fear we’ll sabotage ourselves before we get there.”
Matt’s next book isn’t a retreat from optimism. It’s a wake-up call.
This cuts to the heart of what makes a Rational Optimist different from a Pollyanna. We don’t believe “the future will be awesome no matter what.” Achieving a great future requires specific, deliberate action. It only happens if we make it happen.
Think of Steve Jobs. He didn’t vaguely hope for phones to get better. He envisioned a revolutionary device with a touchscreen and no physical keyboard. Then, he identified the technical blocks and systematically knocked them down.
“What are you most excited about right now?” I asked Matt.
His response:
It’s always the innovations nobody talks about that end up changing our lives the most.
Take Google Maps, this magical thing in our pockets that knows exactly where we are and ensures we never get lost.
Here’s another: I met the founder of The Ocean Cleanup in Rotterdam recently.
While everyone is wringing their hands about ocean plastic, this young engineer built giant nets that have already pulled 21,000 kilograms of trash from the Pacific.
They’re actually doing it, not just talking about it.
A snapshot of the great work Ocean Cleanup does.
I’m excited that we’re moving from a world obsessed with doing less—flying less, eating less, consuming less—to a world focused on solutions. Instead of pulling back, we’re pushing forward.
There’s no better example than what Boom Aerospace achieved last week when it sent a supersonic aircraft thundering across US skies for the first time in 50 years.
“You know why they banned supersonic flight in the first place?” I asked.
“Because they hated the Brits!” Matt says playfully, stirring his tea.
True story: The UK and France joined forces to launch the supersonic Concorde, which ferried passengers from New York to London in three hours.
America’s national champion, Boeing, couldn’t compete. That’s partly why the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) outlawed flying faster than sound in 1973.
Matt and I then played a game, which I love to play with great thinkers: overrated/underrated.
What new technologies will truly change the world? Which are overhyped? Here are Matt’s answers:
Nuclear small modular reactors. Underrated. It’s finally time for nuclear to shine. The SMR revolution will be driven by startups, not legacy companies like Rolls-Royce that only have one foot in the game.
Solar and batteries. Overrated. Fine in sunny places but look outside. Nothing but clouds. Solar’s been a disaster so far in the UK.
(Stephen here. I find solar energy is the most divisive breakthrough. Very smart people on both sides make convincing arguments.)
Self-driving cars. Overrated. I don’t think they will replace human drivers anytime soon.
Drones. Underrated. People haven’t realized how game-changing these will be, and the technology is finally ready. What we need now is for the regulations to catch up. I’m excited about the FAA in America clearing regulations. The UK needs to catch up.
Space. Overrated. What Musk has done with SpaceX is incredible and inspiring, but I just don’t see how it’s going to make the average man’s life better anytime soon.
Artificial intelligence (AI). Overrated in the next five years. Underrated in the next 15. I have no doubt AI will change our world, but there’s a lot of hype around it. Let’s see what happens when it meets real-world problems like unleashing energy abundance.
mRNA cancer vaccines. Underrated. They promise to make most cancers just another affliction that can be treated and survived. I think biotech is the next great 50-year wave of innovation, just like communications was for the past 50 years. (Now, there’s something to be excited about!)
Supersonic travel. Until last week, I would have said overrated. But with Boom Supersonic’s success, it now looks like it’s going to happen. Bring back New York to London in three hours!
Neuralink. Underrated. It’s one my wife is very interested in, and it seems to be advancing at a rapid pace.
Gene editing/CRISPR. Underrated, but I’ve been waiting for this one for a while! It’s going to take some time to get real treatments that can be rolled out to millions.
Geoengineering. Overrated. I am not a fan of cloud seeding, let alone shading the world to cool it down. Too much chance of unintended consequences when we know so little.
“If someone read The Rational Optimist in 2010 and then slipped into a coma for 15 years, how would you explain the world to them today?” I asked.
Matt chuckles and says, “Well, the big story hasn't changed.”
Life expectancy keeps climbing. Extreme poverty continues to fall. Literacy rates are rising. Child mortality is dropping. More people have clean water than ever before.
These century-long positive trends—the foundations of rational optimism—remain unshaken.
But the 2010s threw us some curveballs. The COVID pandemic and its messy aftermath… politicians turning their backs on progress… red tape strangling innovation… social media’s experiment on young minds… and a suffocating wave of censorship.
Last time I met Matt, he told me censorship was his no. 1 concern.
“On balance, these trends made me a little less optimistic,” said Matt.
But… we both agreed in just the past few months, we’ve turned an important corner on many of these worrying trends. Facebook laying off thousands of “fact checkers” is a clear sign that peak censorship might be behind us.
A few months ago, things looked bleak when it came to regulating new game-changing technologies like AI. We wrote about this in The Blight. The US government was intent on exerting suffocating control over AI.
“Did you catch JD Vance’s speech in Paris?” Matt asks, suddenly animated. “I agreed with almost every word.”
“A few months ago, I would have told you much of the world was heading in the wrong direction. But America seems to have halted the decline.”
He’s referring to Vice President Vance’s declaration at the AI Summit: “I’m not here this morning to talk about AI safety... I’m here to talk about AI opportunity.”
Whoa. JD Vance is a Rational Optimist!
Facts and data don’t change the world. Stories do. When starting The Rational Optimist Society, we had to grapple with this inconvenient truth.
The key to turning more folks into Rational Optimists isn’t drowning them in statistics. It’s telling unforgettable stories.
Apple founder Steve Jobs said, “The most powerful person in the world is the storyteller. The storyteller sets the vision, values, and agenda of an entire generation that is to come.”
That’s why The Rational Optimist sold over half a million copies. It told compelling stories about human progress. Now, The Rational Optimist Society follows Matt’s lead, sharing inspiring tales of entrepreneurs pushing boundaries and achieving breakthroughs.
It’s up to each one of us to paint this positive vision of the future. To get excited. To invest. To tell our kids. Each story we share helps draw in more talent, attention, and creativity.
I think of David Senra’s—creator of the excellent Founders podcast—wisdom: “Belief comes before ability.” The stories we tell today shape the world we’ll build tomorrow.
In the 15 years since The Rational Optimist hit shelves, Matt hasn’t slowed down. His excellent book, How Innovation Works, landed on The University of Austin's reading list, making him the only living author in that distinguished company.
Matt has also delved into the COVID crisis, challenged conventional wisdom, and kept pushing boundaries. But his original message about rational optimism matters more than ever. It’s perfectly in sync with the positive new “vibe shift” happening in America.
Now, we’re determined to spread it across the world!
The Rational Optimist Society will be working with Matt on some exciting new projects in the months ahead. Stay tuned!
I’ll let Matt have the last word. When I asked his advice for aspiring Rational Optimists, he quipped, “Don't let the buggers get you down!”
See you next Sunday.
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Writer: Stephen McBride
Editor: Dan Steinhart
Rational Optimist Society: ROS
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