Modern battlefields look nothing like the war movies you grew up watching. Gone are the lumbering tanks and thunderous fighter jets. Today's most deadly weapons fit in a backpack.
Picture swarms of flying robots, each no bigger than a dinner plate, darting around and taking out enemies with terrifying precision. This is happening right now in Ukraine.
AI-powered drones have helped an outmanned and outgunned Ukraine hold off Russia. Drones, not missiles or artillery, have destroyed over two-thirds of Russia's tanks in the past year.
War isn’t a topic I like writing about as a Rational Optimist. But the nature of war is transforming before our eyes, and it’s too important to ignore. Drones are the new nuclear bombs. The country that secures technological dominance can overwhelm conventional militaries and rule the world.
That’s a problem for America because China currently dominates drone manufacturing. Fortunately, a new generation of patriotic American entrepreneurs is stepping up.
Ever hear of Matt Ridley’s “ideas having sex” theory? It says breakthroughs often come from mixing different technologies. Although drones have existed for decades, they’re having their breakout moment now thanks to the combination of cheap batteries + miniaturization + AI.
Drones are cheap, disposable, and devastatingly effective in war. Ukrainian soldiers duct tape grenades to $200 drones you can buy at Walmart. These drones streak across enemy lines to blow up $10 million Russian tanks. See this shot from a new Bloomberg documentary:
Source: Business Insider
But modern drones don't just fly. They think. AI algorithms have already defeated expert human pilots in simulated dogfights. And unlike conventional drones, AI-powered drones can make decisions, coordinate with each other, and navigate by computer vision. No GPS needed, which means “jamming” the connection between the drone and the remote pilot no longer works.
The future of war will be fully autonomous. (Almost) no humans required.
The first drone was invented in a factory in San Diego. Unfortunately, America has since given away drone dominance to China. Chinese company DJI controls 70% of the drone market. The US miliary uses thousands of DJI drones. Talk about a security risk.
Most critical drone parts—propellers, cameras, and antennae—are also made in China.
Imagine a battle where 5,000 AI drones swarm one $13 billion aircraft carrier. It’s obvious who wins. The side that masters drones can endure endless losses because they’re cheap, quick, and easy to mass produce. And they require minimal training of human pilots.
Drone armies are already here, and they’ll only continue to get faster and better. Within a few years, killer robots will be darting through the skies at supersonic speeds, rendering conventional ships, tanks, and even fighter jets useless.
Limitations like the flying range of drones mean this isn’t a reality yet. But it’s only a matter of time.
Meet America's answer to the drone threat. A sleek missile bursts from what looks like an oversized Yeti cooler, streaking through the sky to intercept enemy drones. That’s Roadrunner, built by America’s hottest defense startup, Anduril.
Source: International Defence Analysis on X
Roadrunner is a Looney Tunes-inspired “diss” to America’s second-largest military contractor, Raytheon, which makes Coyote drones.
Today, Anduril is a little-known defense startup. Within five years, it will be as well-known as Lockheed Martin.
The Pentagon recently selected Anduril to lead the Air Force’s flagship AI drone program. The goal is to build 1,000 unmanned aircraft and have them ready by 2030. This is the new Air Force. Human fighter pilots will barely exist in a few years.
Check out Anduril’s winning design, Fury. It’s a fully autonomous drone that attacks in swarms traveling at 700 mph.
Source: Unmanned Airspace
Anduril beat out Lockheed, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman to win this deal. It’s a watershed moment. The US military supply chain is an “old boys club.” Over 80% of defense dollars are awarded to just five companies. It’s one of the hardest—if not the hardest—markets to break into.
The oligopoly has led to stagnation. America’s giant military suppliers are no longer innovators. They’re stodgy old companies run by lawyers and accountants. They milk the system, resist change, and get a big slice of the blame for America falling behind in drones.
In the 1950s, Pentagon funding transformed Silicon Valley from a stretch of prune orchards into America's innovation engine. Today, many tech giants are no fans of the US military. In 2018, Google cancelled an AI contract with the US military because it “upset employees.” I know many venture capitalists who wouldn’t invest in defense startups because it was too controversial.
Sometimes you need a trailblazer like Anduril and its eccentric founder, Palmer Luckey. Someone to stand up and say, "Hey, we're proud to be American and want to help America stay No. 1." Anduril has 50 ft. star-spangled banners hanging in its workshops.
Palmer Luckey, Joe Lonsdale (co-founder of Palantir), and other outspoken founders like them are inspiring young tech minds to help their country. “Hey kid, wanna work for Google optimizing ads, or at Anduril helping the US military win the AI war?” More and more of the brightest kids are now choosing option 2.
So what does this mean for you? The most exciting military tech companies like Anduril are still private. Within 2–3 years, I expect we'll see a wave of defense tech startups go public. Investors should avoid owning legacy defense contractors. Boeing, Lockheed, and the others are going obsolete.
We hear a lot about AI destroying jobs. But consider this: the world's best drone pilot isn't some grizzled Air Force veteran. She’s a teenage girl from Thailand who developed her skills playing video games (seriously).
I write a lot about how bad screentime is for kids. Maybe not? Maybe those quick reflexes and hand-eye coordination will be more valuable than I thought.
Countries with the most men and material won wars of the past. But future battles will be dominated by militaries with the best tech, and drones are a key part of that.
How do you feel about AI drones? Scared? Optimistic? Or are you like me—reluctantly on board because some country will win, and we need to make sure it’s America?
Let me know at stephen@rationaloptimistsociety.com.
Here's to staying ahead of the curve.
Would you live in a 3D-printed house?
As you read this, a startup called ICON is putting the finishing touches on the world's largest 3D-printed neighborhood 30 miles outside Austin, Texas.
These aren't experimental prototypes. They're real houses where real families will cook dinners and celebrate birthdays soon.
Source: New Atlas
The homes are built by a giant robot weighing nearly five tons. It looks like a huge pastry bag. It carefully squeezes out layers of concrete to construct the walls of what will become a home.
The foundations and roofs are still built the old-school way. But the walls—one of the most time-consuming parts—rise from the ground in days rather than weeks.
Today, 3D printing a home still costs more than traditional construction. But the trend is what matters. ICON has slashed its construction costs by 80% in just a few years.
Rational Optimists know all about the 99% cost declines in solar power and batteries. These technologies benefitted from the eighth wonder of the world, learning curves. The more we make something, the better we get at making it efficiently.
But homebuilding has gone backward. It takes longer to build a house today than it did in 1971! This is mostly due to regulation. But methods have been slow to evolve, too.
3D printing brings learning curves to housing construction. With each new house ICON prints, it finds ways to build faster and cheaper.
Brian Potter, editor of Construction Physics, estimated costs drop by 27% every time ICON doubles the number of homes it prints. If the tech keeps improving at this rate, 3D-printed homes could cost a fraction of traditional construction by 2030.
ICON’s new "Phoenix" printer will accelerate improvement. Phoenix uses a crane-like arm that can print second-story walls (previously impossible) and is quick to set up.
Source: VoxelMatters
Imagine a future where a single machine rolls up to an empty lot at sunrise. By sunset, your new home is there, ready to move in. Your dream home on-demand.
3D-printed houses will make home ownership possible for millions more Americans. And after a hurricane or flood, entire neighborhoods could be rebuilt in weeks, not years.
We can’t yet "print" an entire house at the push of a button. But we're getting closer every day.
Stay tuned—The Rational Optimist Society will release a Deep Dive on the state of 3D printing soon.
Raising tomorrow’s Rational Optimists
I'm reading Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax to my five-year-old daughter. It's a tale about a mustached forest guardian fighting a tree-chopping industrialist.
As I turn the pages, the brainwashing begins. The Lorax’s not-so-hidden message: "Humans are evil planet-pillagers." It’s the first taste of the pessimism smoothie Aubrey will be force-fed for years to come.
We all know the news tilts negative… but today’s corporate media has sunk to new depths. Researchers from Wharton and London Business School found “sentiment” (how positive or negative the news is) is at all-time lows:
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
But the truth is we're living in the most prosperous, peaceful time in human history. Every single day since 1990, roughly 130,000 people around the world have been lifted out of extreme poverty. That's headline material for 34 years straight!
Yet only 1 in 20 Americans know about this incredible trend.
It’s easy for us adults to know better. But kids soak up everything. Every gloomy forecast and dire prediction infects their worldview.
Imagine two families. First, the CNN Clan: They constantly watch the news, marinating in a stew of the day's disasters.
Then you have the Innovation Enthusiasts: Over dinner, they discuss new breakthroughs, like Neuralink’s brain chip allowing paralyzed people to work again.
Which kids do you think will grow up happier and more motivated, believing they can solve problems… and then actually doing it?
The world is full of opportunities, and human ingenuity can solve almost any problem. Our kids must know this—but they won’t learn it without YOUR deliberate help.
Tell them how we conquered darkness with lightbulbs, distance with planes, and disease with vaccines. Every challenge is an invitation to innovate.
Let's raise Rational Optimist kids who know they can build solutions instead of just worrying about problems.
Want your little ones to inherit confidence instead of fear? You're in the right place.
Hey, you don’t have to wait until the end of the week for good news.
Follow us on X and check out our podcast for regular updates.
Writer: Stephen McBride: https://x.com/DisruptionHedge
Editor: Dan Steinhart: https://x.com/dan_steinhart
Rational Optimist Society: https://x.com/RationalOptSoc